Should we expect a caffeine-free future?

Climate change & coffee

By now, we’ve heard a lot about climate change and how it’s affecting the whole world in many different ways, including the food industry,

but… are we really aware of it?

Yes, the world is supposed to change. After all, we’re talking about a planet of 4, 543 billion years full of life, nothing can remain the same after all that time, but also, it’s not a secret that these expected changes are appearing faster since the last century and not by chance, to be true, it's our fault.

Overpopulation, wars, the growth of industry, lack of environmental awareness and the exploitation of natural resources are some of the main factors leading to these premature changes. Fortunately, most governments around the globe are giving the matter the importance it deserves, creating plans to try to stop and repair even a little of the damage caused during those years. So, let’s talk about one of the most damaged sectors, the farming and food industry, specifically the damage caused to coffee production.

From seed to cup

First of all, it is necessary to understand how this production works. It all starts with the planting of a tropical bush called coffee that bears flowers and fruits similar to cherries, with different degrees of ripening at the same time. Each cherry-like contains two seeds and that results in our coffee beans. Today, there are more than 80 species of coffee beans, each with different characteristics, making each of these species unique. However, the most important and predominant types are Arabica and Robusta.

This bush has some needs to grow properly and give a good quality bean for all species; it needs an alternating humid-dry climate and the flower needs constant sun and rain. Now, let's focus on the needs of the predominant ones, for arabica it needs an altitude of 6,000 to 2,000 meters at a temperature of 15 to 24 °C and robusta kind needs an altitude of 200 to 900 meters, at a temperature of 24 to 29 °C.

The bush takes 2 to 4 years to develop fruit after the first planting and the fruit takes 6 to 11 months to reach the ideal ripening point for harvesting.

There are two methods of harvesting the fruit:

Strip picking; with human hands or with a machine, the whole fruits are plucked from the bush and the unripe fruit gets separated later in the process.

Selective picking; only by human hands, the fruits are selected by their ripening point, leaving the green ones to ripen. It is mainly used for high quality Arabica coffee, due to the high labor difficulty.

Right after harvesting, the fruit must be separated from the beans. This process must be done quickly, in order to avoid spoilage.

There's two methods used for this purpose.

• Dry method; the fruit is placed directly in the sun to dry on large mats. This process may take several weeks until picked cherries have a moisture content of less than 11%, which makes the removal of the outer skin easier.

• Wet method; the fruit is put through a machine that squeezes out the skin without damaging the beans. The entire process takes about 24 hours.

After that, the beans are repeatedly washed to remove any remains of any leftovers. The now clean coffee beans are then dried in the sun for a day or two or by large machines. The next step consists in removing the dry husk and to get a better quality, some producers polishes the beans to secure the total removal of the husk. The beans are then measured and selected by size and weight. The best beans are packaged for sale to the best buyers and the worst are sold as low quality coffee, especially for instant coffee production.

Those buyers roast the beans according to the desired final product and, in some cases, the beans are milled for different preparation methods, which makes their product more attractive to their customers.

Now, knowing all the way the beans need to get through to get to your cup every morning, it’s easier to understand why the climate changes are affecting coffee production considerably.

Changes and plagues

According to recent research, global temperatures will rise between 1.5°C and 4.5°C in the hottest months, not to mention the fact that rainy seasons and dry periods will become completely unpredictable and, in the worst scenario, extreme. Adding this issue, the plagues have always been an issue for the agricultural world. A plague can destroy an entire plantation in record time, even taking preventive or corrective measures and, now knowing that it takes 2 to 6 years for a new bush to produce fruits, and the climatic changes that are not helping and affecting perfectly healthy bushes, we can conclude that this is a perfect recipe for disaster.

The consequences are becoming visible right now, causing coffee producers to start thinking about producing different products or abandoning their land for good, not only causing hundreds of people to lose their jobs, but leaving many buyers without beans to produce for sale in the market.

What's expected?

It is expected that the global increase in temperature will bring with it a considerable reduction in the area suitable for growing coffee, even up to 50% of the total by 2050. Also, in a lower scale, there will be a redistribution to areas where it was not previously adequate to grow coffee. An example of this relocation is Nicaragua, where it is estimated that the optimum altitude for coffee cultivation will rise from 1,200 meters above sea level to 1,600 meters above sea level by mid-century. These numbers are now a prediction of a rise in the coffee price that will make coffee shops, including coffee production facilities, unviable.

We are only in a position to take care of the environment and hope for the best outcome. The only sure thing is that the planet will continue its course and changes are imminent, so we are only called to take precautions and adapt to a new era.